Dictatorships 101, in 2011

Guest post by Ali Ezzatyar

Ali Ezzatyar is a journalist and American attorney practising in Paris, France.

(Ed. note: This is Ali's second guest post at The Reaction. In January 2010, he co-wrote a post on Iran with Bryan Tollin. -- MJWS)

As Egypt moves ever closer to life without Hosni Mubarak, governments and analysts everywhere ponder the important question of what will come next. The conventional and clichéd wisdom pronounced by pundits and politicians the world over focuses on the risk of a dramatic rise to power for the Muslim Brotherhood and the inevitability of a new Islamist, and implicitly dictatorial, ruling establishment. Disaster for the U.S., for Israel, and for the future of Egypt, right? If the events of recent weeks demonstrate anything, however, it is that dictatorship is increasingly difficult to manufacture in the age of modern communications.

Let's take a step back and acknowledge exactly what these Twitter and Facebook "revolutions" have managed to overcome in just Tunisia and Egypt so far (bearing in mind events in Jordan and Yemen as well). Former president Ben-Ali ruled over Tunisia, with the help of a highly-trained secret police force (among other levers of control), for over 20 years. Just weeks before he fled the country, few a Tunisian would have ever imagined a day where he and his cronies would not dominate the landscape of politics and life in Tunisia for as long as he lived. What had largely been considered one of the most stable and pacified populations in the Arab world, however, took to the streets in large numbers, rendering the president's apparatus of control inoperable against the masses of people from which it was drawn. Increasingly facing the possibility of internal betrayal and what that would mean for his own head, Ben-Ali fled. What happened afterwards, however, was in many ways more remarkable than his being deposed.

The government that immediately replaced the Ben-Ali regime was largely made up of his associates. And while that new government immediately pledged and took concrete steps to dismantle the means of censorship and develop democratic institutions, the Tunisian population, well-informed, continued to protest. Staging demonstrations and continuing to put pressure on a still-infant government, remaining elements from the old guard were purged from the new interim regime. All the evidence suggests that Tunisia is on its way to democratic institution-building and free elections. From communication to coordination, it is hard to imagine how such an historic sequence of events could have happened without the Internet tools that have only become widely used in the region in the last few years.

Events in Egypt are, in the most important ways, following a similar trajectory. While such events are impossible to predict, it is reasonable to hypothesize that, as in Tunisia, no group that fills the potential power vacuum in Egypt will have the clout, influence, or muscle that Mubarak developed over the last 30 years to implement his dictatorial rule. With the tools at the disposal of the world's citizens today, the fear of new dictatorships springing out of such well-established ones -- former dictatorships that had decades to harness accountability from their repressive systems -- seems almost far-fetched. The protesters and the press, emboldened by the information and images they see and transmit in seconds, are already focusing their rhetoric on a post-Mubarak era and the avoidance of a failed transition to democracy.

The world's governments that have been criticized for becoming more dictatorial in the last decade seem to have done so through reform, not revolution. Take Venezuela, for example. The specter of an Iranian-type genuine revolution turned radical Islamic regime also seems unlikely in the Egyptian context. The lack of a unified and charismatic Islamic front (with the Muslim Brotherhood being rather late to the game), coupled with the modern means of communication that are helping to topple Mubarak, will threaten to make the consolidation of power for a new dictatorial regime untenable unless it is extremely popular.

Most importantly, though, let's acknowledge that democracy's growing pains, whatever they may be, deserve the opportunity to play themselves out. It is not the business of entities foreign to Egypt to try and divine the potential makeup of a future government, and then exercise preference over whether or not Egyptians have a right to their own destiny. Foreign influence (short of intervention) should be designed to help strengthen populations and countries that seek to take destiny into their own hands, in the model of Tunisia (with the U.S.' encouragement of Ben-Ali's stepping down), and not in the old model of Iran. Note that the undermining of Iran's popular and democratic movements of yesterday are thought to have contributed to the radicalism and anti-Americanism of its revolution and its government today.

U.S. policy suggests it is frantically trying not to be on the wrong side in Egypt, and in the region generally. We should consider, though, the monumental reputational damage the U.S. will sustain if it stands on the side of autocracy or even ambiguity as it has done in the last two weeks. The specter of loss of interests should yield to the realization that only democratic partners in the region can protect our interests permanently, and that those democratic partners had better be our friends.

Facebook for Hire!

Yeah, the title should attract attention. While I was in class on Tuesday looking at different social networking sites, the teacher for the class informed us that some employers hire people based on what is on their Facebook account. Personally, this is ridiculous, no employer should hire someone based on what is on their Facebook account. What an employer should hire someone because of is how they work with others, their qualifications or something else, not a Facebook account. I mean, I have an account and if an employer were to look at mine, they'd see that I'm a music lover, because most of the stuff on my Facebook page have to do with music, like announcements for Rihanna going on tour, U2 going on tour, Paul McCartney going on tour, the Beatles releasing an album, etc. I personally think it's stupid that some employers would hire you because of what is on a social networking site that you use. Because when we looked at Facebook accounts, I'm pretty sure everyone in the world has seen mine and they pretty much know that I'm a  music lover because of all the music tour announcements, album releases, etc. But I just think it's stupid that some people would do that, it's almost an invasion of privacy, I mean, on Facebook, you can say just about anything and that some people who hire would look at one's account and see something like someone talking about partying or something, that might make the person hiring a little hesitant to hire.


What I think an employer SHOULD look at is what that person can bring to the table, their skills, if they can work well with others, their qualifications, what they can do, their interests or something, my dad has a friend who is a Graphic Designer and he told me he thought that it was ridiculous that some people hire based on what one has on a social networking site. He said that most should hire because of skills/qualifications. And if Denise reads this, I'm totally with her on the whole Facebook issue, no employer should hire a person based on what is on a social site like Facebook, MySpace, Twitter, etc.


Personally, If I'm going to look for a job, I'm just going to keep the same Facebook account that I currently have, if you ever see mine, there is never usually anything dirty on it, most of the stuff on my wall is stuff pertaining to the Breast Cancer Foundation, I'm a strong believer in there being a cure for breast cancer, it runs in my family, happy joy!, Shriner's Hospital is on my wall, I believe in kids getting miracles, a-lot of the stuff on my wall is charity and good stuff and music tour dates, music album releases, musician announcements, etc and just friends talking, but unfortunately, most of the friends I have on there like to talk dirty and I usually tell them I don't talk like that and they just keep on doing it!


Just thought I'd make my text green because of the rapidly approaching Christmas holidays. And thank the Good Lord I have my Christmas shopping done. I swear, I never knew shopping for family would be so hard, I have my sister taken care of, I bought her a blanket of this cartoon character she likes, called Invader Zim, and a book about this athlete she likes, Apolo Ohno, I bought my dad a movie,The Expendables, he loves all those exploding action movies, I bought my mom a book about the topic of Organized Crime, she finds in interesting, I bought my step-father a set of model race cars, he's a major fan of all those car races, like the Le Mans, Indy 500, etc. So hopefully, they love their gifts, I care about family and just wanted to give them something they like.